According to analysts from Danske Bank” “The risk of a complete Russian gas cut-off is looming ever more acute in Europe. If Gazprom does not resume gas transmissions through Nord Stream 1 after the annual maintenance ends on July 21st, the risk of forced demand adjustment and a recession in Europe grows significantly.”
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“Officials have estimated that the EU could replace up to 70% of Russian gas imports by increasing LNG shipments and pipe imports from other regions, green gas, renewables, and by reducing demand. This means that app. 1/3 of the Russian imports cannot be substituted easily in the short-term.”
“If gas flows from Russia stop completely, governments are likely forced into emergency measures such as energy rationing. In that case, households' energy needs will be prioritised over industries, and businesses operating e.g. in chemical, metal and cement industries particularly, could be forced to halt production.”
“Acute energy shortages and elevated energy prices will weigh on all European consumers over the coming winter, but households in Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Belgium are the most exposed. But, as European electricity markets are inter-connected, electricity prices will also be high in countries where direct use of gas is limited such as the Nordics.”
