Global Strategy Team at TD Securities (TDS) sounds optimistic and expects Australian Retail Sales to rise by 0.5% in December. The data is due for release during the Asian session on Tuesday.
“After the stunning rebound in November, we expect retail sales to continue its outperformance. We project sales to rise by 0.5% m/m in December (Nov: +1.4%), contrary to consensus which expect a 0.3% decline. Consumers may feel the urge to spend and splash the cash and credit card after spending the last three straight COVID Christmases under lock and key. However, we don’t expect consumers to keep up this spending spree as higher interest rates and inflation will shrink household real incomes soon. More importantly, the Q4 CPI affirms another 25bps hike from the RBA next week though a stronger retail print may give the Bank more room to take the terminal rate higher.”