- EUR/USD consolidates the biggest daily losses since late October inside 15-pip trading range.
- Market sentiment sours amid virus woes, disappointment over US stimulus and Fed rate-hike concerns.
- ECB policymakers jostle over inflation fears, Fed’s Waller favor rate hike calls.
- US Treasury yields refresh two-week low to weigh on DXY amid light-calendar-day.
EUR/USD treads water inside an immediate trading range surrounding 1.1250, up 0.10% heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the major currency pair cheers the broad US dollar weakness amid fears emanating from Omicron, Fed’s rate-hike and indecision over the US President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) stimulus plan.
The week starts with a risk aversion wave and weighs on the US Treasury yields, which in turn heavy the US Dollar Index (DXY). However, mixed concerns over the ECB v/s Fed battle and a light calendar restrict the EUR/USD pair’s corrective pullback.
US 10-year Treasury yields drop three basis points (bps) to 1.37%, down for the third consecutive day to poke the monthly low marked on December 03 at the latest. In doing so, the T-bond coupons also heavy the DXY, down 0.08% intraday around 96.65 by the press time.
A 52% jump in the UK’s covid cases and fears of fresh covid-linked restrictions during the Christmas celebrations join chatters over a virus-led death of a New Zealand resident who took Pfizer vaccine. Additionally, New York Times said, “Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, warned on Sunday that the extraordinarily contagious Omicron variant of the coronavirus was raging worldwide and that it was likely to cause another major surge in the United States, especially among the unvaccinated.”
Elsewhere, US Senator Joe Manchin refused to vote in favor of President Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) plan during the weekend. The news pushed back previous hopes of getting the stimulus through the house in 2021. Even so, US House Speaker Pelosi stays hopeful of reaching an agreement over BBB in 2022.
On Friday, Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller renewed the Fed rate-hike concerns while saying, per Reuters, “The ‘whole point’ of the Fed's decision to accelerate the pace of its QE taper was to make the March Fed meeting ‘live’ for a first rate hike.” At home, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member Olli Rehn and Madis Muller cited possibilities of a rate hike but Bank of France Head Francois Villeroy de Galhau conveyed hopes of a peak in inflation.
To sum up, the risk-off mood favors the EUR/USD sellers even as DXY and Treasury yields trigger intermediate bounces. However, an absence of major data/events requires the pair traders to watch risk catalysts for clear direction.
Technical analysis
Unless rising beyond the 1.1385 horizontal hurdle, comprising tops marked since November 16, EUR/USD prices remain vulnerable to refresh yearly low of 1.1186.
