EUR/USD: Some wait-and-see approach ahead of the ECB meeting – ING

EUR/USD hovers around the 0.99 level. In the view of economists at ING, the pair may enter Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting from this level.

A bit of calm before the ECB?

“Markets are pricing in 66 bps of tightening by the European Central Bank at tomorrow’s announcement, but our base case remains a 50 bps hike. This obviously widens the scope for a further weakening of the euro later this week, but for today, some wait-and-see approach ahead of the big risk event could cap EUR/USD volatility, and the pair may enter tomorrow’s meeting from the 0.9900 level.”

“A thread to keep an eye on is the ongoing discussion among EU members about solving the energy price problem. This may have particular relevance for the ECB as an EU-wide cap on energy bills would likely put a lid on inflation expectations, as well as offer a lifeline to the battered economic outlook. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has continued to push for an agreement on price caps and stated yesterday that this could prove to be a relatively quick mechanism to implement.”


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