The Bank of England (BoE) hiked by 75 basis points but several details leaned in a dovish direction triggering a substantial fall in the Pound (-1.5% vs USD). Economists at ING expect GBPUSD to retest the 1.10 level.
A very dovish hike
“While the BoE hiked by 75 bps, it seemed to tweak the policy message to the dovish side as much as reasonably possible. The bottom line is that the BoE is essentially shutting the door to another 75 bps, and we expect a 50 bps hike in December.”
“The fiscal rigour brought by the new UK government may have already had a beneficial effect on the pound, and now the size of the current UK recession may become a primary currency driver. Indeed, the downside risks are still quite significant, and next week’s GDP numbers will surely be watched quite closely: consensus is currently around a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter contraction.”
“Risks are skewed towards a re-test of 1.1000 in Cable over the next few days, with today’s US payrolls possibly adding pressure on the pair.”
