The US dollar was mostly weaker yesterday versus G10. Today, it is hard to see a big jump in FX vol on FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, in the view of economists at MUFG Bank.
Fed officials set the tone for Powell
“It feels like there’s certainly a consensus for at least another 125 bps of tightening this year. Fed President Bullard also spoke and cited frontloading and getting the fed funds to 3.75%-4.00%.”
“We can’t see Fed Chair Powell providing the grounds for a big move in rates. He is unlikely to commit to a size of move for the September FOMC and is more likely than not to imply implicitly that current market pricing seems reasonable.”
“We’d expect Powell to have a hawkish bias similar to other speakers this week which will help support the dollar without providing a catalyst for any notable gains from current levels.”