USD/CAD: Move below 1.25 by year-end on the cards barring another big correction in oil prices – ING

Falling crude oil prices helped USD/CAD climb above 1.2900 on Monday after weighing heavily on the loonie. Nevertheless, BoC tightening could push the pair below 1.25 by the end of 2022 unless oil suffers another big correction.

Waiting for some carry effect

“The Bank of Canada hiked by 100 bps at the last meeting, but we expect a more moderate pace of tightening from now on. Our base-case is a 50 bps hike in September (markets currently pricing in 58 bps).” 

“The BoC frontloaded tightening should leave the loonie with some decent carry advantage, but we still expect such advantage to fully materialise beyond the short term once market sentiment has stabilised.”

“Barring another big correction in oil prices, a move below 1.25 by year-end in USD/CAD still looks on the cards.”

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