- USD/INR remains depressed around one-month low, down for the fourth consecutive day.
- A clear downside break of three-month-long ascending trend line joins bearish MACD to favor sellers.
- Tops marked during early June, late May could act as additional downside filters.
- Market players expect RBI to increase Repo rate.
USD/INR extends the previous week’s bearish trajectory as it renews the monthly low near 78.95 during Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair justifies Friday’s downside break of the ascending trend line from May amid bearish MACD signals.
That said, the USD/INR bulls await the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) next move to tame inflation. It’s worth noting that the Reuters poll suggests an increase in the RBI’s Repo rate with a forecast range of 25-50. “26 of 63 respondents predict 50 bps hike,” the poll also mentioned.
Given the clear downside break of the previously important support and the bearish MACD signals, the USD/INR prices are likely to remain pressured towards the 50-DMA support near 78.70.
However, tops marked during early June and late May, around 78.40 and 78.12 in that order, could challenge the pair bears afterward. Also acting as the key downside support is the convergence of the 100-DMA and an ascending support line from January, around 77.60.
Alternatively, USD/INR buyers remain away unless witnessing a clear upside break of the support-turned-resistance line, at 79.60 by the press time.
Even so, the 79.80 and the 80.00 hurdles could challenge the upside momentum before directing them to the recently flashed record high of 80.20.
USD/INR: Daily chart
Trend: Further weakness expected
