USD/MXN broke not just below the 20 handle but 19.70 gave way too, opening up a move down to 19.50 in quick succession. Yet economists at Rabobank expect a move back above 20 to happen in similar fashion over the course of the next month
Resiliant but risky
“We expect USD/MXN to trade back above the 20 handle before the end of June but the current technical picture does suggest that might come after a test of 19. That said, we do expect the move higher in USD/MXN to happen quickly when it does occur. We, therefore, prefer layering into USD/MXN longs gradually with larger positions the closer the pair moves to 19.”
“We see an implied probability of USD/MXN trading to 16.50 by the end of 2022 at just 3% while the equivalent move higher to 22.5 has around a 24% implied probability of occurring.”
