Over the last month, the US dollar has dropped against most of the G10 and EM complex. This setup raises the question of whether it has peaked. In the view of economists at TD Securities, the USD turn is coming, but not yet.
A pivot will require patience and better data
“The time to see a peak in the dollar is coming, but not yet, especially as the key factor to lean against the USD rests on the global growth outlook.”
“A pullback in rates vol would match the hopes of peak terminal rate pricing, raising the carry appeal. And the USD's super-rich to stagflation risks. A pivot will require patience and better data, but this is a healthy reminder to stay nimble.”