- AUD/USD steps back from intraday high but seesaws around 50-DMA for the fourth day.
- Uptick in virus cases, China’s fear of Typhoon Chanthu weigh on sentiment.
- Chatters concerning Sino-American relations, Iran’s nuclear deal and vaccines favor bulls.
- A light calendar keeps risk catalysts on the drive’s seat.
AUD/USD fades initial Asian session recovery, at par with week-start levels around 0.7358 during early Monday. In doing so, the Aussie pair struggles for a clear direction amid mixed concerns.
The chatters over US stimulus, Iran and the easing of the Sino-American tussles join the vaccine optimism to cite the positive catalysts. On the contrary, an uptick in daily virus cases and fears over Typhoon Chanthu reaching China’s mainland challenge the bulls amid a quiet start to the week.
US Democrats are up for easing their previous demands to push forward President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion stimulus. Biden’s six-pronged strategy and the US-China talks after multiple months of silence favor market sentiment and commodity prices. Additionally, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Chief Rafael Grossi recently visited Tehran and returned with the good news of striking a deal with Iran to solve "the most urgent issue" between them.
Australia’s daily covid counts increase from 1,672 to 1,750 but the hopes that 80% of the population will be vaccinated by October question the covid woes. Further, authorities in Shanghai shut down schools and suspend flights on geopolitical fears. Also challenging risk appetite, as well as AUD/USD prices, is North Korea’s testing of the long-range cruise missile.
Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures pare initial gains while the US 10-year Treasury yields stay inactive near 1.34% at the latest.
Given the lack of major data/events, as well as fears of Fed tapering, AUD/USD traders need to watch risk catalysts closely for fresh impulse.
Technical analysis
Although a convergence of 100 and 200 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) around 0.7350-55 becomes a strong near-term support for AUD/USD traders, the bulls remain skeptical unless crossing but a broad resistance zone near 0.7410-25 will be the key hurdle to watch afterward.
