The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to deliver its first post-pandemic interest rate hike in September 2023, six months after it brings an end to its quantitative easing (QE) programme, the latest Bloomberg survey of economists showed on Friday.
Key findings
“Most survey participants said consumer-price growth in the region — at 5% now — will likely settle below the ECB’s 2% target next year.”
“Analysts in the survey only see a 10-basis-point increase in the deposit rate — currently at -0.5% — in September 2023.”
“Official projections published in December anticipate price growth of 3.2% in 2022 and 1.8% in both 2023 and 2024.”
“More than half of survey respondents said these expectations are “likely” or “highly likely” to pan out. Just over a third said it’s an “unlikely” or “highly unlikely” scenario.”
