- EUR/USD loses further ground and revisits the 1.0660 region.
- The greenback extends the bid bias despite lower yields.
- Germany Construction PMI eased to 45.4 in May.
Sellers appear well in control of the sentiment around the European currency and drag EUR/USD back to the 1.0660 zone on Tuesday.
EUR/USD in multi-day lows
EUR/USD sheds ground for the third session in a row on Tuesday and pushes further south of the 1.0700 mark in the first half of the week, always in response to the selling pressure in the risk-associated universe.
Also reflecting the offered bias in the risk complex, US and German yields recede from recent tops, although they manage well to keep the trade in the upper end of the range.
In the domestic calendar, German Factory Orders contracted at a monthly 2.7% in April and the Construction PMI eased a tad to 45.4 in May. Across the Atlantic, Balance of Trade results and the Consumer Credit Change figures are due later in the NA session.
What to look for around EUR
EUR/USD continues to lose momentum and extends further the rejection from peaks beyond the 1.0700 mark in past sessions.
The pair’s recent multi-week recovery has been on the back of supportive ECB-speak, which continued to point at an initial rate hike as soon as in July, while the consensus view that the bond-purchase programme should end at some point in early Q3 has also lent legs to the European currency.
However, EUR/USD is still far away from exiting the woods and it is expected to remain at the mercy of dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence, while higher German yields, persistent elevated inflation in the euro area and a decent pace of the economic recovery in the region are also supportive of an improvement in the mood around the euro.
Key events in the euro area this week: Germany Construction PMI (Tuesday) – Advanced EMU Q1 GDP Growth Rate (Wednesday) – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Thursday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Speculation of the start of the hiking cycle by the ECB as soon as this summer. Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro bloc. Impact of the war in Ukraine on the region’s growth prospects.
EUR/USD levels to watch
So far, spot is retreating 0.09% at 1.0686 and a breach of 1.0627 (monthly low June 1) would target 1.0532 (low May 20) en route to 1.0459 (low May 18). On the upside, the next resistance aligns at 1.0786 (monthly high May 30) seconded by 1.0936 (weekly high April 21) and finally 1.0945 (100-day SMA).
