- The British pound falls for the fourth time in the week,, looks for a weekly close below 1.3300.
- A dampened market sentiment hurts the prospects of the GBP as investors seek to safe-haven assets.
- GBP/USD: In the 4-hour chart, the 50-SMA has acted as resistance, and rallies toward the moving average have been faded.
The British pound pares Thursday’s gains and some more, is down some 0.50%, trading at 1.3232 during the New York session at the time of writing. A risk-off market mood prompted investors to drop anything with the word “risk” attached to it, benefitting safe-haven assets. In the FX market, the USD, the JPY, and the CHF are the most aided of the abovementioned and are the stronger currencies as we approach the Wall Street close.
In the last three hours, the pound bounced off Friday’s daily low around 1.3210s, towards 1.3240s, on a steady move that could have been prompted by USD profit-taking. Also, USD bulls failed to break the 1.3200 figure on the back of the not-so-bad November’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which in the case of have been in line with estimations or better, the GBP/USD would indeed be trading at new YTD lows.
As reported earlier, the US economy added 210K new jobs, shorter than the 550K estimated by experts. The headline showed a worse than expected report, but the Unemployment Rate dropping from 4.5% to 4.2% reinforced that the labor market is improving but not at the pace required. Additionally, the Fed seems to pivot from the maximum employment goal towards tackling inflation, as Fed Chief Jerome Powell said on the week that inflation is no longer “transitory” and should be no longer used when speaking of elevated prices.
Therefore, as the Fed pivoted towards inflation, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October on Friday of next week would be the primary driver for GBP/USD traders, followed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November on its preliminary read.
In the UK economic docket, BoE’s speaking, Retail Sales, Manufacturing Production and GDP, would entertain GBP/USD traders.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD has a downward bias, as shown by the 4-hour simple moving averages (SMA’s), which have a downslope and reside above the spot price. Also, the 50-SMA has undergone three tests, and in each of those, the GBP has failed to break above it, leaving that level as a strong resistance level.
In the outcome of extending the downward move, the first support would be 1.3200. The breach of the latter would expose the November 30 low at 1.3194, followed by the 1.3100 figure.
Contrarily on the upside, the first resistance would be 1.3300. A break above that level would expose the 50-SMA at 1.3318, followed by the 100-SMA at 1.3374.
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