The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market bounce a bit on Friday to show signs of this bounce from a relatively significant trend line, and it‘s also worth noting that this is the one commodity that continues to perform. That being said, I don’t like the idea of being heavily exposed to the crude oil market right now, because it seems to be doing everything it can to destroy trading accounts.
I look at the $100 level as a major support level, so if we were to break down below that area, I suspect that we have much further to go to the downside. In fact, at that point I would anticipate that the entire uptrend is over. However, we look to be hanging onto the trend line, so I suspect that we have a bounce or two ahead of us. Whether or not the overall strength of the market can continue is a completely open question, but right now it seems to be hanging on and fighting. If we can break above the $115 level, that would be a very strong sign.
Crude oil is in its own world right now, because there is a serious supply issue, as for almost 2 years there was no real drilling or exploration. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the United States is at its lowest level since 1986, having just 26 days worth of supply left. Because of this, I would anticipate that the WTI grade will probably still have a little bit of upward pressure on it, and therefore we need to look at this through the prism of buying tips on short-term charts would be my best guess.
If we were to somehow break above the $120 level, I think that would be a very bullish sign and kick this market much higher. However, I do not anticipate that happening in the short term, unless of course there is some type of supply shock. OPEC seems to be less than enthusiastic about creasing production, so I do not think that will come into play anytime soon. The Russian oil supply is being put out on the open market, but for just a few select countries, thereby not having an influence directly on the futures market. Expect volatility, and keep your position size reasonable.
