If a recession results from the scarcity of commodities and supply problems, it will not push down inflation, on the contrary, as it will be accompanied by a sharp rise in commodity prices. Central banks would then face their worst-case scenario: a recession linked to very high inflation, economists at Natixis report.
Household savings rate is falling and corporate profit margins are high
“Because the household savings rate is falling, which, in the United States, is linked above all to household credit growth, and given high corporate profit margins, a recession due to a fall in consumption or investment is unlikely.”
“But we can imagine a recession due to scarcities: hiring difficulties for companies, energy shortages, shortages of other commodities, insufficient production capacity in transport and semiconductors. This scarcity-induced recession would then be accompanied by high inflation, not disinflation, which would be a worst-case scenario for central banks: recession and high inflation.”
