In response to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) July meeting’s minutes released earlier this Tuesday, analysts at Goldman Sachs pushed back their tapering expectations.
Key quotes
“July's Minutes provided further context around the Board's decision to signal a tapering in the pace of QE purchases and fix the endpoint to the YCC program.”
“While the YCC decision was widely expected going into the meeting, the Minutes showed there was some debate around the decision to taper QE taper purchases given the RBA remained "well short" of its inflation and employment objectives.”
“Looking forward, despite signaling a taper in QE purchases beyond September at July's meeting, we note recent press reports suggest Governor Lowe may reverse this decision if lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne are prolonged.“
“Combined with ongoing risks around the spread of the delta variant to other regions of Australia – we note South Australia just entered a 7-day lockdown.”
“We now expect the RBA to reverse its taper decision at its August meeting. Instead, we expect the RBA to continue QE bond purchases at a pace of A$5bn/week once the current tranche ends in September, before ultimately starting to taper in November 2021."
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