Goldman Sachs projects only a modest impact of US President Joe Biden’s new vaccine mandate on employment as it applies to as few as 25 million people and perhaps prompts half of them to get inoculated over the next six months, per Reuters.
Key quotes (from Reuters)
Those mandates might also lead some people to quit their jobs, find other work in smaller companies that do not have a mandate, or opt to undergo testing if it is available, they add.
Using a combination of survey data and shifting vaccination rates after a French mandate, they estimated that perhaps as few as 12 million people would be vaccinated as a result of the mandate – a 3.6% boost to the vaccinated share of Americans.
The United States, with just about 64% of its population at least partially immunized, remains far short of the level needed to reach herd immunity and curb the spread of the coronavirus. Scientists are watching new variants of the virus as well.
Goldman Sachs economists predict that overall U.S. vaccination rates may hit 82% by the middle of next year after vaccines are approved for children under 12, a level they feel will see the economy more fully open and workers less hesitant to return to jobs.
FX implications
The news should ideally cut on the market’s optimism and joins the pre-US Inflation anxiety to challenge the traders.
Read: US Inflation Preview: CPI critical for taper, three scenarios for the dollar
