Retail Sales overview
Early Friday, the market sees preliminary readings of Australia's seasonally adjusted Retail Sales for April month at 01:30 GMT. Market consensus suggests a downbeat MoM print of 0.9% versus 1.6% prior readings, suggesting the lack of sustained improvement in economic activity after positing the softer outcome in March.
Given the recently mixed Aussie data challenging the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish bias, not to forget covid-led lockdowns in China, today’s Aussie Retail Sales appear the key for the AUD/USD traders.
Ahead of the data, TD Securities said,
We expect retail sales in Australia to rise by 1.4% m/m in April, extending the 1.6% m/m gain in March. The April holidays should give a boost to consumer spending while we expect a further rebound in sales from Queensland and New South Wales which experienced severe flooding and extreme rainfall in February & March. A strong retail beat should give the RBA confidence that taming inflation is its top priority as economic fundamentals are strong. We stick with our call for a 40bps hike by the Bank in June.
On the other hand, Westpac said,
Card spending indicators suggest retail sales should sustain strong momentum (March +1.6%) but weakening consumer sentiment and elevated prices add downside risk. Westpac forecasts: 1.3%mth, consensus is 1.0%.
How could it affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD remains sidelined around 0.7100, marking the third lackluster day ahead of the key Aussie data. The pair’s latest moves fail to cheer a softer US dollar amid market anxiety, as well as fears of global recession due to China’s covid-led lockdowns and the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
That said, Australia’s seasonally adjusted Retail Sales for April is expected to ease to 0.9%, versus 1.6% prior, amid hopes of a recovery in consumer demand due to the restoration of normal life after severe flooding. However, softer consumer sentiment and inflation fears seem to test the outcome.
It’s worth noting that softer-than-expected Aussie Retail Sales figures will weigh on the AUD/USD prices, especially after the pair’s recent difficulties in picking up bids. Alternatively, strong data might back the RBA’s hawkish bias and underpin further upside towards refreshing the weekly top above 0.7100.
Technically, AUD/USD buyers seem running out of fuel after rising to 0.7127 on Monday. Even so, a convergence of the 21-DMA and previous resistance line from early April, around 0.7030, becomes necessary for the bear’s entry.
Key Notes
AUD/USD bulls flirt with 0.7100 with eyes on Aussie Retail Sales, US PCE Inflation
AUD/USD Forecast: Ignoring stocks’ rally may hint at an upcoming slump
About Australian Retail Sales
The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it''s considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
